Fearless Predictions: Part 3

Introducing the A-League to Australia

Welcome A-League, it’s been a long time coming! Football (soccer for the rest of this story) is on free to air TV from next season. Get excited! Not since the days of Marconi Stallions vs Brisbane Strikers has every person in Australia had the chance to watch soccer’s national competition. Any future expansion of the A-League relied on this deal. Not for the money ($160M), but for fact that only 7 per cent of Australian’s have Foxtel, limiting whatever growth the A-League was seeking. Now every future Schwarzer, Oar or Matt McKay can see likes of Del Piero, Shinji Ono and Emile Heskey and why the A-League isn’t just a retiring ground for fading stars.

This deal also gives us the chance to view our home grown talent. The likes of Kewell, Viduka and Cahill may not grace the fields of the best EPL teams, but we have players competing in first division competitions in England, Germany, China, Korea, Holland, USA and the list goes on. Without the A-League the current generation would have a tough time cracking the big time overseas. It gives Robbie Kruse a chance to score in the Bundesliga, it gives FC Utrecht in Holland a chance to start two Aussies, and Mitchell Langerak a chance to play for German giant Borussia Dortmund against Bayern Munich.

What we have seen in the A-League this year is just what Doctor Gallop ordered. We have seen a glimpse of the potential the code has in this country. From opening kickoff when 42,000 fans packed Etihad Stadium for the local Derby, to ADP slotting home his 12^th goal in Perth over the weekend, it has been a season of positive news (something the other codes would love). Average crowds this year are up over 16 per cent on last year, and Melbourne Victory is averaging over 20,000 to home games. Both Victory and Sydney FC are averaging more fans to their home games than 13 of the 16 NRL clubs. In 2011 the gap between the average NRL attendance and A-League attendance was 5,904, this year the gap has closed to 3,798.

These figures, coupled with the emergence of a successful Western Sydney team, the Giants Wanderers, makes the A-League possibly Australia’s most promising code. So my tip for this year is that not only that Sydney’s west will be won by the Wanderer’s and not the Giants in the near future, but that they will also take out the title in their first year, beating the minor premiers Central Coast.

Same teams different script?

A quick history on my soccer development:

(Fade to image of a young Bagdad Primary School player)

In my formative soccer viewing years (10-13 years old) I supported Manchester United like every other impressionable child. It was fuelled by seeing them play Chelsea at Old Trafford in 1998 followed by the purchase of a knock off jersey a couple of weeks later. Throw in the fact they won the treble the next year and I was sold. Side note: My dad is still adamant I could have haggled lower for the jersey.

A couple of years later a change swept through, with the arrival of Harry Kewell and Mark Viduka to Leeds United. After never having a reason to support a team other than they won, it was now time to jump on the Leeds bandwagon. It was just in time to see them play in the semi finals of the Champions League after a couple of great seasons.  High point right there!

Then it all came crashing down and the only thing that they were competing for was financial survival and a fourth division crown. To a young football fan with all the memorabilia, this signalled the onset of the dark.

Fortunately there is a good ending to this story. The not so young boy inspired by Lionel Messi, the Spanish national team and Barcelona, was drawn back just in time to see one of the best finishes to the EPL season ever and possibly the greatest single season ever.

(The end - Fade out)

After all these years, a nagging thought remained, that the titles, the European Cups and the marquee players were only for a select few teams. Soccer is after all one of the few sports left that doesn’t use a salary cap, the primary tool used around the world to even out competition. So being the statistically minded person I am, I a looked at the four major leagues of Europe and their respective big four teams, as detailed below, and focussed on who came first and second over the past 20 years.

Premier League: Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal & Liverpool
Serie A: AC Milan, Inter, Juventus & Roma
Bundesliga: Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Werder Bremen & Schalke
La Liga: Real Madriad, Barcelona, Valencia & Deportivo

It turns out that over the last 20 years, the big four teams in their respective leagues have won on average 91 per cent of the titles, and come second 81 per cent of the time. The British, Italian and Spanish competitions only had 5 separate winners, with the Bundasliga providing the most variation with 6 different winners.

In comparison, over the same time period, the AFL had 11 different winners and 13 different runners up, the NRL had 9 and 9, the NBA had 8 Champions and 15 different runners up, and the NFL had a staggering 12 different winners and 15 different runners up. In the case of the AFL, 65 per cent of teams have won a title and 76 per cent were runners up compared with the EPL’s 25 per cent and 35 per cent came second.

The critics to this may say that there is the FA Cup and the League Cup for the other teams, but here again the statistics paint a similar picture.  The other criticism may be that the American sports have more teams, but it still means that a much higher percentage have won or come second when compared.

Then we have the Champions League, where we get the best teams from across Europe competing against each other. In theory this would have a greater distribution as there are more countries, more teams and more chances to knock out the big teams. However of the 40 teams to reach the semi finals over the last decade, 29 have been from England or Spain. The good news, as Roger Burnett of ESPN points out recently, is that the balance may be shifting.

None of that is really a prediction. It is in such a way that more than likely one of the big four will win its league, or that a Spanish or English team will win the Champions League. We know the first part of this is going to happen with Man U 12 points clear, likewise in Spain with Barcelona 12 points in front. In Italy Juve is 6 ahead and Bayern Munich is 14 points in front in Germany.

So I’m not even going to go there. Instead let’s focus on the Champions league. The draw has worked out nicely for Bayern, with the bookmakers recognising this, as well as their good form and history in the competition has them installed as favourites. This is despite a trip to the final meaning a road through Barcelona. Going a step further their opponent will likely be the winner of the Man U/Real fixture. The reason behind that one is simple: A Spanish or English team.

So that’s the world game. Next up on the 2013 predictions specials is your NRL guide in a new way. No off season moves, no coaching changes or injuries, just a simple mathematical look at who your team plays, and how that will affect your teams 2013 season.