I grew up on AFL so I will always be inherently biased towards the sport. When I sit down on Friday nights and have to decide between Channel 7 with Bruce or Channel 9 with Rabs, Channel 7 and Friday Night footy wins every time.
If you aren’t up to speed on what Strength of Schedule analysis is I encourage you to read the NRL Season Preview, where you will see that this isn’t about Kurt Tippett’s ‘trade’ to Sydney, Essendon’s needle habits or what Mick won’t do with Carlton, it’s about the facts built into the schedule that lead to my 2013 ladder.
2012 – Cheer, cheer the red and the white....
We all know Sydney won, we all know they are a tough, gritty, well trained defensive team, but did the draw help them at all in 2012? Firstly, they had the easiest road schedule in the competition. Of those 11 away games, 8 were against non finals teams, the most of any team in the competition. The Swans effectively played the Brisbane Lions every week on the road. Now that doesn’t count for much come finals time, but it certainly put them in a position to avoid playing at the MCG until the grand final with a first round win over the Crows (more shortly). It also created a belief within the team that they could win away. But credit where credit is due. The Swans faced Collingwood, Hawthorn and Geelong in the run home before playing Adelaide and Collingwood just to make the final where they beat the minor premiers, the Hawks. Premiership deserved!
The Crows on the other hand wouldn’t have been viewed in the same way had they won the flag. Pre-season estimates suggested an easy schedule, and an easy schedule is what they got. For the overall season they averaged playing a 10-12 team. Look at the second half though where they averaged playing a 9-13 team before playing the last 5 games against the equivalent of a 7-15 team.
Other points of note from 2012:
- On average, of the 8 teams that made the finals, 5 are from the previous year's top 8 and 3 are new. Last year this was true with Carlton, St Kilda and Essendon dropping out and Adelaide, North and Fremantle coming in.
- Speaking of the Kangaroos, they ended up having the equal easiest draw of the season along with the Crows.
- The toughest runs to the finals belonged primarily to the finalists from the year before, with Collingwood, West Coast, Geelong and the Bombers at the top of the list.
There are plenty of numbers to go over, but we are moving on.
2013 – Fear the Purple Army
On the whole the AFL has done well in making 2013 tougher for last year’s finalists and easier for those outside the top 8 by having them play each other more often. This is done each season for fairness and commercial reasons. We all want to see the top teams playing each other, but we also want to see new teams in the finals so we don’t end up like the Premier League. As we have seen in previous posts the AFL has had more different winners over the last 20 years than most competitions.
Interesting facts about the 2013 schedule:
- All clubs will play at the MCG at least once
- All Victoria clubs will travel interstate at least 5 times
- 2 Monday night matches and 6 matches in Tassie
Adelaide Crows
Most would have thought the AFL would balance things out and give the Crows a tough year, however it turns out they have the easiest season schedule of last year’s top 12. They have the easiest road schedule of all teams, another easy run into the finals and a cushy start, not to mention no consecutive 6 day turnarounds; all-important for an interstate team. The only top 4 team they play twice this year is the Eagles.
Brisbane Lions
This young group could be one of your three new finalists, providing J Brown doesn’t try and run across the M1 to prove his toughness. Their second half of the season is the envy of most teams, where they effectively play a 9-13 team every week. Not only this, but they get to play last year’s bottom four teams twice each.
Carlton Blues
Welcome Mick! Start your season off by playing 4 of the top 5 from last year in the first 5 rounds. On the bright side you don’t play any top four teams in the last 8 rounds, and only two finalists. Survive the first 5 weeks in decent shape and it could be a launching pad to the finals.
Collingwood Magpies
Ouch! They play the grand finalists 4 times, have the second toughest run into the finals and twice during the season have consecutive 6 day turnarounds. On the plus side they had a similar draw last year and still finished top 4. Anyway, I’ve already wasted 60 words too many on the Pies.
Essendon Bombers
If, and this is a HUGE if, they get to the end of the year unscathed from ASADA, they have a decent draw. A four game stretch of finalists from rounds 17-20 will test them, but we often forget this young team (Dustin Fletcher excluded) were 8-1 last year, before becoming the first team since the Demons of ‘71 to miss the finals. This is the most intriguing team of the year, and one that I am sure the bookies are cautious about. New players, the best TAC Cup prospect since Judd and a Brownlow medallist can’t hide the elephant with the syringe in the room.
Fremantle Dockers
A pretty good year for my beloved Dockers! Nothing out of the ordinary and the easiest run home by a mile, playing the equivalent of a 7-15 team. Derby to start the year could set the tone and if this team gets to half way in the 8, look out for the Purple Haze.
Disclaimer: As much as the fanfare attempts to remain neutral, this in no way applies to images in stories. Prepare yourself for a lot of Pavlich & Co in 2013.
Geelong Cats
Strange scheduling note: The Cats don’t play at the Catery (now Simonds Stadium) until round 10. In other news the Cats are the only team that have 3 consecutive 6 day breaks, effectively playing 4 games in 19 days (Rounds 1-4). Coincidentally 3 of these 4 games are against top 8 teams with two of them being the grand finalists. Overall pretty even with easier first half compared to the second half.
Gold Coast Suns
Can they build again on last year’s 3 wins? Home games to the Giants, Demons and Port would be the logical suggestions but two of those come in the last 4 rounds. They do get the bonus of playing the Tigers ‘away’ in Cairns, much to the delight of the Tigers fans. They don’t play any finalists in the last 4 rounds but it won’t matter too much by then.
Greater Western Sydney Giants
See above except more easy home games. Play Suns, Port, Bulldogs and Demons in Sydney. Could the round 22 clash between the Suns and GWS be the first game people watch to see who wins the wooden spoon? Probably not!
Hawthorn ‘Tasmania’ Hawks
So what’s the reward for finishing 1st last year? A difficult start and finish to your season. In a schedule that I doubt has ever been seen before, the Hawks play all of the finalists from the year before in the first 7 rounds. But wait there’s more. They have the toughest away schedule of the season, but have three home games in Tassie and their bye round follows a gruelling three week schedule of Giants, Suns and Melbourne. They will sure need a break after that! All in all a tough year, but that’s what you get for consistently being a top team.
Melbourne Demons
Melbourne won something! They won the easiest schedule of 2013. Will it help? Not going to say much about the team failing to use the draft successfully, but they do play GWS and Gold Coast twice and they only have to play one finalist twice this year.
North Melbourne Kangaroos
North Melbourne Kangaroos
Also a winner, but this time for toughest draw of the year. For a club that was almost in financial/organisational ruin twice, the Roo's have rebuilt into last year's surprise finalists. With success comes challenges, in this case it's the draw.
Effectively playing a 15-7 team over the last 5 rounds, the Roo's will have to play above last year's level. Oh and did I mention their first 5 rounds are against 15-7 teams? Or that they have the most 6 day turnarounds? Or that they are playing both WA teams within 5 weeks with a trip to Queensland in between? Now I have.
Port Adelaide Power
Start strong, struggle home. That's the 2013 motto for the Power. An easy first half leads into a slightly more difficult home run. The power will try and use some of the late positives from last year and the start of this year to build on something for future years.
Rounds 12-15 should be fun by the way: Sydney, Collingwood, Essendon and Hawthorn
Richmond Tigers
A pretty good draw for the consistently under achieving Tigers. Four of their last 5 games are at the G and none of their schedule rates as difficult. They also get a chance to exorcise the Karmichael Hunt demons of last year with a home game in Cairns against the Suns.
St Kilda Saints
Gold Coast and GWS in the first 3 weeks helps what is a pretty standard draw. Those two games are part of the 7 the Saints play outside Victoria. One of those 7 is an ANZAC Day clash against the Swans in the first ever match for competition points in New Zealand. Last two games at home to Gold Coast and Freo could be important.
Sydney Swans
After opening with GWS and the Suns, Sydney play 6 of the 8 finalists over the next 9 rounds, with 4 of those 6 coming on the road and the previously mentioned New Zealand game in there as well. Effectively there are playing a 14-8 team over this span. They also round off the season by encountering the Pies, Cats and Hawks in the last month. The only perk is they play GWS twice. All in all a pretty tough draw for the red and the white.
West Cost Eagles
Missed in last seasons review was the fact the Eagles had the toughest schedule and still finished fifth. This year again is a worse that average draw, and with the travel factored in always tough.
Fortunately their ten games against last years finalists see 6 at Subiaco and 4 away. Of those ten, two games are the Derby, the first of which is played in the round 1.
Western Bulldogs
Toughest overall draw of the non finalists. However, they only leave Melbourne once in the last 8 rounds. Melbourne is the only other bottom four team that they get to play twice. Tough to see a team that finished 15th last year improve with this draw.
There you have it. No bias (Freo excluded), no form and no players to speak of (well a couple), just the draw and the highs and lows for your team. But there isn’t much point to all of this without a ladder. Before I do, a quick reminder that this year the AFL is being played at 16 different venues, across 6 states, two territories and two countries, so get out to a game, support your team, and enjoy the sport that truly is Australia’s game.
1. Sydney
2. West Coast
3. Hawthorn
4. Collingwood
5. Adelaide
6. Fremantle
7. Essendon
8. Geelong
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9. Brisbane
10. Carlton
11. Richmond
12. St Kilda
13. North Melbourne
14. Port Adelaide
15. Western Bulldogs
16. Melbourne
17. Gold Coast
18. Greater Western Sydney
1. Sydney
2. West Coast
3. Hawthorn
4. Collingwood
5. Adelaide
6. Fremantle
7. Essendon
8. Geelong
-----------------------
9. Brisbane
10. Carlton
11. Richmond
12. St Kilda
13. North Melbourne
14. Port Adelaide
15. Western Bulldogs
16. Melbourne
17. Gold Coast
18. Greater Western Sydney
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