AFL Preview - Strength of Schedule Analysis

Welcome to the AFL preview for 2013. Two weeks ago I tackled (no pun intended) the NRL, but as much as I love the NRL, this is all about Australia’s game as the AFL like to say.

I grew up on AFL so I will always be inherently biased towards the sport. When I sit down on Friday nights and have to decide between Channel 7 with Bruce or Channel 9 with Rabs, Channel 7 and Friday Night footy wins every time.

If you aren’t up to speed on what Strength of Schedule analysis is I encourage you to read the NRL Season Preview, where you will see that this isn’t about Kurt Tippett’s ‘trade’ to Sydney, Essendon’s needle habits or what Mick won’t do with Carlton, it’s about the facts built into the schedule that lead to my 2013 ladder.

2012 – Cheer, cheer the red and the white....

We all know Sydney won, we all know they are a tough, gritty, well trained defensive team, but did the draw help them at all in 2012? Firstly, they had the easiest road schedule in the competition. Of those 11 away games, 8 were against non finals teams, the most of any team in the competition. The Swans effectively played the Brisbane Lions every week on the road. Now that doesn’t count for much come finals time, but it certainly put them in a position to avoid playing at the MCG until the grand final with a first round win over the Crows (more shortly). It also created a belief within the team that they could win away. But credit where credit is due. The Swans faced Collingwood, Hawthorn and Geelong in the run home before playing Adelaide and Collingwood just to make the final where they beat the minor premiers, the Hawks. Premiership deserved!

The Crows on the other hand wouldn’t have been viewed in the same way had they won the flag. Pre-season estimates suggested an easy schedule, and an easy schedule is what they got. For the overall season they averaged playing a 10-12 team. Look at the second half though where they averaged playing a 9-13 team before playing the last 5 games against the equivalent of a 7-15 team.

Other points of note from 2012:

• On average, of the 8 teams that made the finals, 5 are from the previous year's top 8 and 3 are new. Last year this was true with Carlton, St Kilda and Essendon dropping out and Adelaide, North and Fremantle coming in.
• Speaking of the Kangaroos, they ended up having the equal easiest draw of the season along with the Crows.
• The toughest runs to the finals belonged primarily to the finalists from the year before, with Collingwood, West Coast, Geelong and the Bombers at the top of the list.

There are plenty of numbers to go over, but we are moving on.

2013 – Fear the Purple Army

On the whole the AFL has done well in making 2013 tougher for last year’s finalists and easier for those outside the top 8 by having them play each other more often. This is done each season for fairness and commercial reasons. We all want to see the top teams playing each other, but we also want to see new teams in the finals so we don’t end up like the Premier League. As we have seen in previous posts the AFL has had more different winners over the last 20 years than most competitions.

Interesting facts about the 2013 schedule:

• All clubs will play at the MCG at least once
• All Victoria clubs will travel interstate at least 5 times
• 2 Monday night matches and 6 matches in Tassie

Adelaide Crows

Most would have thought the AFL would balance things out and give the Crows a tough year, however it turns out they have the easiest season schedule of last year’s top 12. They have the easiest road schedule of all teams, another easy run into the finals and a cushy start, not to mention no consecutive 6 day turnarounds; all-important for an interstate team.  The only top 4 team they play twice this year is the Eagles.

Brisbane Lions

This young group could be one of your three new finalists, providing J Brown doesn’t try and run across the M1 to prove his toughness. Their second half of the season is the envy of most teams, where they effectively play a 9-13 team every week. Not only this, but they get to play last year’s bottom four teams twice each.

Carlton Blues

Welcome Mick! Start your season off by playing 4 of the top 5 from last year in the first 5 rounds. On the bright side you don’t play any top four teams in the last 8 rounds, and only two finalists. Survive the first 5 weeks in decent shape and it could be a launching pad to the finals.

Collingwood Magpies

Ouch! They play the grand finalists 4 times, have the second toughest run into the finals and twice during the season have consecutive 6 day turnarounds. On the plus side they had a similar draw last year and still finished top 4. Anyway, I’ve already wasted 60 words too many on the Pies.

Essendon Bombers

If, and this is a HUGE if, they get to the end of the year unscathed from ASADA, they have a decent draw. A four game stretch of finalists from rounds 17-20 will test them, but we often forget this young team (Dustin Fletcher excluded) were 8-1 last year, before becoming the first team since the Demons of ‘71 to miss the finals. This is the most intriguing team of the year, and one that I am sure the bookies are cautious about. New players, the best TAC Cup prospect since Judd and a Brownlow medallist can’t hide the elephant with the syringe in the room.

Fremantle Dockers

A pretty good year for my beloved Dockers! Nothing out of the ordinary and the easiest run home by a mile, playing the equivalent of a 7-15 team. Derby to start the year could set the tone and if this team gets to half way in the 8, look out for the Purple Haze.

Disclaimer: As much as the fanfare attempts to remain neutral, this in no way applies to images in stories. Prepare yourself for a lot of Pavlich & Co in 2013.

Geelong Cats

Strange scheduling note: The Cats don’t play at the Catery (now Simonds Stadium) until round 10. In other news the Cats are the only team that have 3 consecutive 6 day breaks, effectively playing 4 games in 19 days (Rounds 1-4). Coincidentally 3 of these 4 games are against top 8 teams with two of them being the grand finalists. Overall pretty even with easier first half compared to the second half.

Gold Coast Suns

Can they build again on last year’s 3 wins? Home games to the Giants, Demons and Port would be the logical suggestions but two of those come in the last 4 rounds. They do get the bonus of playing the Tigers ‘away’ in Cairns, much to the delight of the Tigers fans. They don’t play any finalists in the last 4 rounds but it won’t matter too much by then.

Greater Western Sydney Giants

See above except more easy home games. Play Suns, Port, Bulldogs and Demons in Sydney. Could the round 22 clash between the Suns and GWS be the first game people watch to see who wins the wooden spoon? Probably not!

Hawthorn ‘Tasmania’ Hawks

So what’s the reward for finishing 1^st last year? A difficult start and finish to your season. In a schedule that I doubt has ever been seen before, the Hawks play all of the finalists from the year before in the first 7 rounds. But wait there’s more. They have the toughest away schedule of the season, but have three home games in Tassie and their bye round follows a gruelling three week schedule of Giants, Suns and Melbourne. They will sure need a break after that! All in all a tough year, but that’s what you get for consistently being a top team.

Melbourne Demons

Melbourne won something! They won the easiest schedule of 2013. Will it help? Not going to say much about the team failing to use the draft successfully, but they do play GWS and Gold Coast twice and they only have to play one finalist twice this year.

North Melbourne Kangaroos

Also a winner, but this time for toughest draw of the year. For a club that was almost in financial/organisational ruin twice, the Roo's have rebuilt into last year's surprise finalists. With success comes challenges, in this case it's the draw.

Effectively playing a 15-7 team over the last 5 rounds, the Roo's will have to play above last year's level. Oh and did I mention their first 5 rounds are against 15-7 teams? Or that they have the most 6 day turnarounds? Or that they are playing both WA teams within 5 weeks with a trip to Queensland in between? Now I have. 

Port Adelaide Power

Start strong, struggle home. That's the 2013 motto for the Power. An easy first half leads into a slightly more difficult home run. The power will try and use some of the late positives from last year and the start of this year to build on something for future years.

Rounds 12-15 should be fun by the way: Sydney, Collingwood, Essendon and Hawthorn

Richmond Tigers

A pretty good draw for the consistently under achieving Tigers. Four of their last 5 games are at the G and none of their schedule rates as difficult. They also get a chance to exorcise the Karmichael Hunt demons of last year with a home game in Cairns against the Suns.

St Kilda Saints

Gold Coast and GWS in the first 3 weeks helps what is a pretty standard draw. Those two games are part of the 7 the Saints play outside Victoria. One of those 7 is an ANZAC Day clash against the Swans in the first ever match for competition points in New Zealand. Last two games at home to Gold Coast and Freo could be important.

Sydney Swans

After opening with GWS and the Suns, Sydney play 6 of the 8 finalists over the next 9 rounds, with 4 of those 6 coming on the road and the previously mentioned New Zealand game in there as well. Effectively there are playing a 14-8 team over this span. They also round off the season by encountering the Pies, Cats and Hawks in the last month. The only perk is they play GWS twice. All in all a pretty tough draw for the red and the white.

West Cost Eagles

Missed in last seasons review was the fact the Eagles had the toughest schedule and still finished fifth. This year again is a worse that average draw, and with the travel factored in always tough.

Fortunately their ten games against last years finalists see 6 at Subiaco and 4 away. Of those ten, two games are the Derby, the first of which is played in the round 1.

Western Bulldogs

Toughest overall draw of the non finalists. However, they only leave Melbourne once in the last 8 rounds. Melbourne is the only other bottom four team that they get to play twice. Tough to see a team that finished 15^th last year improve with this draw.

There you have it. No bias (Freo excluded), no form and no players to speak of (well a couple), just the draw and the highs and lows for your team. But there isn’t much point to all of this without a ladder. Before I do, a quick reminder that this year the AFL is being played at 16 different venues, across 6 states, two territories and two countries, so get out to a game, support your team, and enjoy the sport that truly is Australia’s game.

1. Sydney
2. West Coast
3. Hawthorn
4. Collingwood
5. Adelaide
6. Fremantle
7. Essendon
8. Geelong
-----------------------
9. Brisbane
10. Carlton
11. Richmond
12. St Kilda
13. North Melbourne
14. Port Adelaide
15. Western Bulldogs
16. Melbourne
17. Gold Coast
18. Greater Western Sydney

NRL Preview: Strength of Schedule Analysis

We are off and racing in the NRL, with the season kicking off last night with the Rabbitohs and the Roosters. It also saw the most cringeworthy sports broadcast in recent memory with the voice of Sonny Bill, Spidercam, the plethora of presenters and an over abundance of cross promotion (I'm looking at you Tom Waterhouse).

While most fans, experts and commentators will look at the season ahead based on off-season trades, video ref changes, player development, coaches and injuries, thefanfare has taken a different approach, focusing on the numbers and statistics over emotion and opinion. It is often hard, even for the most subjective fan, to fairly evaluate the season without some predisposition of bias towards certain teams or players. For instance, my personal dislike of the Roosters stems not from their current team or waste of good player talent, but from a dislike of them growing up. This in no way affects anything statistically like the fact they had the toughest schedule during origin last year and it doesn’t mean that I wouldn’t pick Sonny Bill in my fantasy team every day of the week because historically his numbers are great in fantasy football.

What I am trying to say is that if you strip away the rumours, speculation and hype from it all, you are left with the numbers. In this study the numbers represent the Strength of Schedule (SOS). Commonly used in the US, the SOS is valuable in a league when not all teams play each other the same number of times.

Example A – NFL: In the NFL there are 32 teams, 16 in each conference. Each conference has 4 divisions of 4 teams. The schedule is based on the fact you play each team in your division twice (6 games), the teams from another division in your conference once (4 games), the teams from another division in the other conference once (4 games) and two games against the team that finished in the same position as you in the other divisions of your conference. Got it? Simple right?

What I am trying to highlight is that you play different teams every year, and some years you play poorer performing teams than the year before.

Example B – English Premier League: In the EPL all teams play each other twice, once home and once away. Simple yet effective, an easy way to ensure everyone plays the same teams.

In summary, SOS refers to the difficulty or ease of a team's opponents compared to others. What it gives you is the win/loss percentage of the teams you are going to play, allowing you to calculate the average quality of your opponents.

In the tables below you will see a numbers ranging from 9 to 15. A 9 implies that over the specified time period, your average opponent will be a team that wins 9 games and loses 15 over a season. On the flip side, a 14 implies your team is playing a 14 win-10 loss team over that period. Basically, you want your team to have the lowest number possible.

Hopefully that all made sense, as we are about to look not only at SOS for the year as a whole, both this year and last, but break it down and look at which teams benefit and lose out home or away, pre/during/post origin and finally who has the best run into the finals.

2012 preview and review

The benefit of looking back before we look forward is to see how accurate the figures from last season were. Before the 2012 season we could have done the SOS by using the final ladder from 2011. Once the season was done we could redo it using the final 2012 positions.

Picture 1: 2012 Strength of schedule based on 2011 ladder

Picture 2: 2012 Strength of schedule based on 2012 positions

Green – Easy:           Average record of opponent is less than 11 wins
White – Average:      Average record of opponent between 11-13 wins
Yellow – Difficult:     Average record of opponent between 13-13.5 wins
Red – Hard:              Average record of opponent over 13.5 wins

For the season as a whole, no team was outside the average, with more than half the teams falling within a game of the pre-season estimate while the rest fell within two games of the prediction. Home and away results show that only the Warriors had a difficult rating, averaging a 13/11 team at home. This may not seem significant, but for a team that relies so much on home wins, a difficult home rating is not ideal.

The most beneficial information is the numbers surrounding State of Origin and the final 5 games or 'run home'. The State of Origin period is important given that those games encompass 7 games of the season, a significant enough size to affect your ladder position. The run home is important for momentum, with the last five games not only helping/hindering your ladder position, but giving you the confidence come finals. Just ask the Eels of 2010.

For the purpose of discussing what actually happened, we will use picture 2 for discussion.

Example 1: Does the run into the finals affect your finals chances?

What we see from the results is that the top 3 teams all had an easy last 5 rounds before the finals. In fact, both the Storm and Rabbitohs had an easy run all the way from the end of Origin. This was also true for the Raiders, who as we know climbed from outside the top 8 just weeks before the season ended, to claim a home final which they proceeded to win. In stark contrast the Sharks, who were the Raiders first finals opponents, had a tough last 5 weeks, slipping from a possible top 4 spot to 7th. The Sharks should have known, as the pre-season number shows, that this was always going to be the case.

Some comfort here for Knights supporters, who over the last 5 weeks averaged playing a team with a 15-9 record, or the equivalent of playing the 4^th or 5^th team each week. This wasn’t just tough, it was the highest number of the season for any team over any split.

Example 2: The State of Origin Curse

Each year we hear about how clubs are disadvantaged by their best players missing games or backing up from Origin. Often overlooked is the SOS during this time. In this analysis Origin time was defined as the round before Origin 1 when players had to sit out, to the game after Origin 3 when players backed up.

Both the Roosters and Storm had tough schedules, as predicted before the season. For a team that has players out due to selection, this is the worst time for the Storm to encounter a tough schedule. It shows just how important that 9-0 start was last year, as they went 3-4 during the origin period.

We could read as much as we want into the previous numbers, but the whole point of the exercise is to try and look at the year ahead through a non subjective method, and see how your team will fare.

2013 Preview

So there we have it, the numbers for this year. Before we write off any teams or lock them in for finals, there are a few scheduling anomalies that should be noted that aren’t reflected in the strength of opponent, but should be considered when reviewing the year.

• The Cowboys play 8 of their first 12 games away and 6 of the last 8 at home
• The Rabbitohs have a three game away run on the Gold Coast, Townsville and Melbourne
• The Roosters only play out of NSW twice: Round 2 at the Warriors, Round 10 at Cowboys (Canberra doesn't count)
• The Titans play 5 of first 7 at home, but 1 of last 5 away

There are obviously plenty of other anomalies in the season but those four stand out, particularly for the Cowboys. The Cowboys have the second easiest final 5 games, second only to the Dragons. If the Cowboys can survive their difficult Origin period, where they will be without Thurston, then their home game heaven to end the season, combined with their easy schedule, it could be time to lock them in for the finals much to the delight of my best man Menzies.In complete contrast the Rabbitohs have a horror run into September. Following the easiest run during the Origin period where they play a 9.7-14.3 team, they move on to playing a 13.6 win team post Origin. Their final 5 games get worse with a 14.1 average. The flip side to this is that they are a top 4 team from last year and should counteract this to some extent. As we saw last year, two teams with bad ends to the seasons dropped far enough down the ladder to seriously affect their finals aspirations. As we have seen in the AFL and now the NRL with the finals system, if you don’t finish in the top four it is basically impossible to make the grand final.

A quick summary of the rest of the year:

• Once Origin starts the Titans have the toughest schedule in the league
• The Bulldogs have an easier post Origin schedule. For Bulldogs fans this could coincide nicely with a return of the Dally M Medal winner, Ben Barba
• The Broncos, unlike last year, have an easy run into the finals. After missing the finals for the first time in decades, this could signal the end of their transition period
• The Sharks have an easier post Origin schedule. If the club doesn't crumble following the recent news it could be another finals year for them
• The Raiders have a slightly more difficult schedule than the numbers show. The last six games are: Storm(H), Roosters(A), Bulldogs(H), Manly(H), Warriors(A) and Sharks (H). They play four of the top seven from last year and the Warriors away. The benefit is that they are at home for most of them but a real challenge for a team that seems to disappoint so many.

So that's it. Make of it what you will. Before finishing, it is important to note that the season overall is really even in terms of fairness, to the credit of the NRL. As you will see in a couple of weeks, the schedule for the NRL is a lot fairer than the AFL.

Now I wasn’t going to do this but it’s time for the final ladder of 2013, 26 rounds in advance. Enjoy!

1.       Sea Eagles

2.      Storm

3.      Rabbitohs

4.      Cowboys

5.      Broncos

6.      Tigers

7.      Bulldogs

8.      Sharks
-----------------

9.      Raiders

10.   Roosters

11.    Knights

12.   Dragons

13.   Warriors

14.   Panthers

15.   Eels

16.   Titans (much to my wife's disgust)

Fearless Predictions: Part 3

Introducing the A-League to Australia

Welcome A-League, it’s been a long time coming! Football (soccer for the rest of this story) is on free to air TV from next season. Get excited! Not since the days of Marconi Stallions vs Brisbane Strikers has every person in Australia had the chance to watch soccer’s national competition. Any future expansion of the A-League relied on this deal. Not for the money ($160M), but for fact that only 7 per cent of Australian’s have Foxtel, limiting whatever growth the A-League was seeking. Now every future Schwarzer, Oar or Matt McKay can see likes of Del Piero, Shinji Ono and Emile Heskey and why the A-League isn’t just a retiring ground for fading stars.

This deal also gives us the chance to view our home grown talent. The likes of Kewell, Viduka and Cahill may not grace the fields of the best EPL teams, but we have players competing in first division competitions in England, Germany, China, Korea, Holland, USA and the list goes on. Without the A-League the current generation would have a tough time cracking the big time overseas. It gives Robbie Kruse a chance to score in the Bundesliga, it gives FC Utrecht in Holland a chance to start two Aussies, and Mitchell Langerak a chance to play for German giant Borussia Dortmund against Bayern Munich.

What we have seen in the A-League this year is just what Doctor Gallop ordered. We have seen a glimpse of the potential the code has in this country. From opening kickoff when 42,000 fans packed Etihad Stadium for the local Derby, to ADP slotting home his 12^th goal in Perth over the weekend, it has been a season of positive news (something the other codes would love). Average crowds this year are up over 16 per cent on last year, and Melbourne Victory is averaging over 20,000 to home games. Both Victory and Sydney FC are averaging more fans to their home games than 13 of the 16 NRL clubs. In 2011 the gap between the average NRL attendance and A-League attendance was 5,904, this year the gap has closed to 3,798.

These figures, coupled with the emergence of a successful Western Sydney team, the Giants Wanderers, makes the A-League possibly Australia’s most promising code. So my tip for this year is that not only that Sydney’s west will be won by the Wanderer’s and not the Giants in the near future, but that they will also take out the title in their first year, beating the minor premiers Central Coast.

Same teams different script?

A quick history on my soccer development:

(Fade to image of a young Bagdad Primary School player)

In my formative soccer viewing years (10-13 years old) I supported Manchester United like every other impressionable child. It was fuelled by seeing them play Chelsea at Old Trafford in 1998 followed by the purchase of a knock off jersey a couple of weeks later. Throw in the fact they won the treble the next year and I was sold. Side note: My dad is still adamant I could have haggled lower for the jersey.

A couple of years later a change swept through, with the arrival of Harry Kewell and Mark Viduka to Leeds United. After never having a reason to support a team other than they won, it was now time to jump on the Leeds bandwagon. It was just in time to see them play in the semi finals of the Champions League after a couple of great seasons.  High point right there!

Then it all came crashing down and the only thing that they were competing for was financial survival and a fourth division crown. To a young football fan with all the memorabilia, this signalled the onset of the dark.

Fortunately there is a good ending to this story. The not so young boy inspired by Lionel Messi, the Spanish national team and Barcelona, was drawn back just in time to see one of the best finishes to the EPL season ever and possibly the greatest single season ever.

(The end - Fade out)

After all these years, a nagging thought remained, that the titles, the European Cups and the marquee players were only for a select few teams. Soccer is after all one of the few sports left that doesn’t use a salary cap, the primary tool used around the world to even out competition. So being the statistically minded person I am, I a looked at the four major leagues of Europe and their respective big four teams, as detailed below, and focussed on who came first and second over the past 20 years.

Premier League: Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal & Liverpool
Serie A: AC Milan, Inter, Juventus & Roma
Bundesliga: Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Werder Bremen & Schalke
La Liga: Real Madriad, Barcelona, Valencia & Deportivo

It turns out that over the last 20 years, the big four teams in their respective leagues have won on average 91 per cent of the titles, and come second 81 per cent of the time. The British, Italian and Spanish competitions only had 5 separate winners, with the Bundasliga providing the most variation with 6 different winners.

In comparison, over the same time period, the AFL had 11 different winners and 13 different runners up, the NRL had 9 and 9, the NBA had 8 Champions and 15 different runners up, and the NFL had a staggering 12 different winners and 15 different runners up. In the case of the AFL, 65 per cent of teams have won a title and 76 per cent were runners up compared with the EPL’s 25 per cent and 35 per cent came second.

The critics to this may say that there is the FA Cup and the League Cup for the other teams, but here again the statistics paint a similar picture.  The other criticism may be that the American sports have more teams, but it still means that a much higher percentage have won or come second when compared.

Then we have the Champions League, where we get the best teams from across Europe competing against each other. In theory this would have a greater distribution as there are more countries, more teams and more chances to knock out the big teams. However of the 40 teams to reach the semi finals over the last decade, 29 have been from England or Spain. The good news, as Roger Burnett of ESPN points out recently, is that the balance may be shifting.

None of that is really a prediction. It is in such a way that more than likely one of the big four will win its league, or that a Spanish or English team will win the Champions League. We know the first part of this is going to happen with Man U 12 points clear, likewise in Spain with Barcelona 12 points in front. In Italy Juve is 6 ahead and Bayern Munich is 14 points in front in Germany.

So I’m not even going to go there. Instead let’s focus on the Champions league. The draw has worked out nicely for Bayern, with the bookmakers recognising this, as well as their good form and history in the competition has them installed as favourites. This is despite a trip to the final meaning a road through Barcelona. Going a step further their opponent will likely be the winner of the Man U/Real fixture. The reason behind that one is simple: A Spanish or English team.

So that’s the world game. Next up on the 2013 predictions specials is your NRL guide in a new way. No off season moves, no coaching changes or injuries, just a simple mathematical look at who your team plays, and how that will affect your teams 2013 season.