Earlier this year I reflected on 2012 and the events that shaped it. Two months down in 2013 and plenty has happened to suggest this year will be as exciting as the last. With the Australian Open, the ACC Report, the Super Bowl and Black Caviar’s return already in the book it’s time to look into the 2013 crystal ball.
Starting today with Australian cricket and Formula 1, the next few weeks will see a breakdown of topics such as Tiger & Rory, A-League/Champions League, everything USA and all the relevant and irrelevant sporting events that need to be covered.
It will culminate with a look into the AFL and NRL seasons by going deep into the fixtures and looking at the strength of schedule (SOS) for each team. Hopefully this helps with planning for finals tickets 6 months in advance.
It won’t all be serious, and more than likely I will look like a fool as each prediction fails, but it wouldn’t be much fun if I didn’t do it. So let’s get this started!
Australian Cricket: Moses, Usman and Xavier. Yes three Australian Cricketers!
What better place to start than with the team that will play 14 tests this year while using 42 players? Australia’s rotation policy will just as likely see Darren Lehman pad up as it is to see Australia’s best XI take on the Indian’s and Pom’s. If that wasn’t enough it seems that Australian team doctors have lost Errol Alcott’s magic spray from ten years ago as breakdowns and stress fractures continue to spread like peptides and HGH.
Before dissecting the men’s year ahead a quick congratulations to our women’s team, the Southern Stars, for taking out the World Cup in India last week. For all the publicity the men’s team gets, it should not be forgotten that our women have won 6 of the 10 World Cups played.
Now for the tour of India. Let's look at the facts first:
- Since resuming test cricket in India in 1996 after a ten year hiatus, Australia has won 4 of the 17 matches played, winning only one series in 2004. That team included Langer, Hayden, Martyn, Clarke, Warne, Gillespie, McGrath and led by Adam Gilchrist
- England became the first team since that '04 Australian side to win a series in India.
- Both of the above teams were ranked number 1 in the world at the time.
- South Africa are the only other team to have won a series in India, winning in 2000.
In summary, only three teams have ever won a series in India and two of those were the number one in the world!!
Back row: Haydos, Pigeon, Dizzy, Alfie, Kasper, Kat, Clarkey
Front Row: Marto, Gilly, Bing, Punter, Boof
Australia has named an inexperienced squad for this series with one eye squarely on the Ashes and has done so by naming a first test team where 7 batsmen (including Henriques) have played a total of 16 matches in India between them. Clarke (10 matches at 38) and Watson (6 matches at 40) are the only two to have padded up in India. On the bright side they have more experience than the bowlers with Siddle leading the attack with his 1 previous test where he took 4 wickets at 44.
Australia’s lack of experience in India and also against spin is highlighted by S Rajesh of Cricinfo and shows not only our struggles against Indian spinners, but our spinners' struggling to bowl in India. Even the greatest of them all, Shane Warne, averaged 25.41 for his career and 43.11 in India. Let’s hope Australia’s new team song leader Nathan Lyon can return to the form we saw in Sri Lanka.
With that said I see this being a close series. Indian curators will produce dust bowls to favour a possible three prong spin attack. This may aid Australia’s new bowlers in their quest to achieve the lost art of reverse swing right before the Ashes, as well as lead to possible variable bounce. We are also facing an Indian team in a time of transition. This time around there is no Laxman, Dravid or Ganguly.
Prediction: In Sachin Tendulkar’s last series as a Test cricketer, I see Australia winning one test while giving away another they could have easily won (South Africa memories anyone), and losing a third.I would normally suggest a draw as the other result, as around 25% of matches between the two teams in India normally are. However with these batting lineups, I don’t see either team batting out 5 days (or 4 with rain). This gives India a comfortable 3-1 series win. Even with that result I think Australia take confidence from the tour ahead of the tour of England, even if the media doesn’t see it that way.
As for the Ashes....... best saved for another blog, post India tour!
Formula 1: Not bad for a second driver?
Last year we saw the first 7 races of the season go to 7 different drivers, two of them first time winners. I don’t think we can expect the same this year but we can expect another close championship with all teams trying to compete before the big engine change in 2014. The lack of summer changes should help the second tier teams such as Lotus, Mercedes and Sauber to close the gap on the top 3, especially after Raikkonen’s third place last year. It will be interesting to see how McLaren perform with a clear top driver in Button, with Sergio Perez likely to be become the new Mark Webber in his supporting role to Button. We see the schedule drop to 19 races after a number of drivers were critical of the longest season in the history of the sport last year, aided by Eccelestone’s failure to negotiate a second US Grand Prix.
In 2012 Sebastian Vettel became just the third driver to win three consecutive titles. The other two you ask? Schumacher and Fangio, both who went on to win a fourth title the next year. Vettel’s strength in recent years is to use his qualifying ability to position himself at the front and lead the race. But over the last few years we have seen a couple of examples (Canada 2011) where he has cracked under pressure or the car has failed him. Surprisingly Vettel led the field in overtakes last year with 74 (40 of those came in two races at the end of the season to seal the title) as many simply think that he always starts on the front row. The other remarkable thing about Vettel is that since joining Red Bull Racing four years ago he has won 25 out of a possible 75 races, giving him a 33% strike rate. That form alone would see him win 6 races this year, more that he won last year on the way to the title.
I could talk about the others; Button, Raikkonen, Hamilton, our Mark Webber even, but I’d rather get straight to the point.
Prediction: Fernando Alonso will win the driver’s championship and stop Vettel’s reign.
Alonso and Ferrari’s ability to finish races, both through his driving skills and the team’s reliability, will determine if my prediction this comes true. Last year Alonso had two retirements, both due to ‘racing incidents’. He also only had two races (retirements not included) where he finished worse than he started, and one of these was starting on pole to finish second. This was a trend that continued on from 2011 where he retired just once and only finished worse than his starting position three times for a combined loss of 4 places. In the final 11 races that he finished last year he was off the podium once with a fifth. He also led the field in podiums by appearing 13 times in 20 races compared to Vettel’s 10.
Two predictions down and plenty more to go. Tune in Monday for a special on the world game!
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