Fearless Predictions: Part 2

Golf: A year of Tiger vs Rory, or something new?

2012 was a pretty good year for the game of golf. It ended with just as many UK golfers in the top 10 as US golfers with 4 each (repeating the feat of 2011 with 3 each). It was also the second year in a row that an Australian finished in the top 10 (we had two in 2011).

We also saw these moments occur.

Bubba Watson’s miracle shot at The Masters

This overshadowed Louis Oosthuizen’s performance which included this albatross!

How can we forget Adam Scott’s… ummm… how to describe it…. choke/collapse/meltdown?

Miracle at Medinah thanks to the legend of Seve Ballesteros.

So that’s 2012 in a nut shell except for the small fact that Rory McIlroy emerged as the apparent heir to Tiger’s throne. Even Nike thought so and offered the young Irishman a cool $200 million for his efforts. The only difference between the two? When Tiger signed his deal, the hat changed but the clubs stayed the same for a considerable amount of time. As for Rory, he started 2013 with his new clubs and a pair of 75’s to miss the cut in Dubai before following it up with a first round loss in the World Match Play, where coincidentally he shot a 75. So who really is Nike’s main man? Caroline Wozniaki’s other half or Mr Eldrick '14 Majors' Woods?

This season has well and truly started but it isn’t until Augusta that the year really gets going. This year should be about the depth, the quality and endless possibilities in golf; however the narrative will be Tiger and Rory. Unlike in years gone by where schedules and different tours have kept them apart, this year we could see them play as many as 15 tournaments together. If the first two are anything to go by, the bookies are in for a good year. On to the year ahead.

Augusta, unlike the US Open or US PGA, is the place where the top players shine. Since full season rankings in 1987, the average rank of the Masters winner is 15.44 (the best of any major), with only 6 winners coming from outside the top 30 and only two of those were outside the top 50 (Johnson 56^th and Cabrera 69^th). For those thinking Bubba can go back to back, it is important to note that only 3 players have ever done that. One final Masters fact: Greg Norman jointly holds the course record (twice) with Sir Nick Faldo at 63 and the front 9 record of 29 with three others.

In other majors related news, the Open Championship returns to Muirfield. It is here in 2002 that Ernie Els won the first of his two Opens by beating two Australians, Steve Elkington and Stuart Appleby, along with Frenchman Thomas Levet. The US Open returns to Merion for the first time since 1981, when an Australian by the name of David Graham claimed his second major. I am hoping these are good omens for Australian success this year.

Predictions: Picking the winners of the majors might be a tough ask, but here are my candidates for this year.

South Africans: Louis Oosthuizen, the current world number 5 is the leading contender of a strong South African contingent (Schwartzel 15^th, Els 24^th, Grace 30^th, Coetzee 42^nd and Clark 48^th). He already has an Open Championship under his belt and looks to have turned the corner in terms of the consistency needed to constantly compete at the highest level. Watch out for Clark who is returning to the game after an injury disrupted couple of years.

Brits: Safe bet is the world number 1 McIlroy or Luke Donald (3^rd), however neither will win a major in 2013. McDowell (19^th) and Poulter (10^th) are also off my list, despite my love for Poulter’s game. This leaves me with Lee Westwood. He currently holds the ‘Scott West’ record of most top ten finishes at a major without a win at 14. Westwood also lead the field last year in distance left to the hole, averaging 7.67m, 1.51m fewer than average through September. Of all the Brits, Westwood will be the one to take the most out of 2013.

Americans:  No Lefty or Woods, no Sticker or Furyk here. 2013 signals a new wave. First on the list is Brandt Snedeker (4^th). He is the only player currently in the top 10 in driving accuracy and putting average, two factors that will suit the normally tough US Open courses. Dustin Johnson (20^th)is next on the list. Johnson made his way up to 4^th in the world in late 2011 before a back injury sidelined him for two months. He has slowly made his way back, culminating in a win at the tournament of Champions in January. As a side note he is reportedly dating the daughter of legendary ice hockey player Wayne Gretzky. Final US pick is the man in form, Matt Kuchar (8^th). His win at the WGC Match Play event followed two years in the event where his defeats were to the eventual champion. A Players Championship victory last year and top ten finishes at the Masters and Open Championship show he can play on the big stage.

Roughies: Nicholas Colsaerts, the Ryder Cup wild card and big hitter from Belgium. A win in the Volvo Match Play last year and a rise to 40 in the world only 3 years after earning his card back show the talent he has. Tim Clark re entered the top 50 recently after an elbow injury forced him out of the game less than a year after winning the Players Championship. Maybe not a major contender just yet but a steady climb up the rankings should come after some good results. Finally, and just for Smithy, Keegan Bradley (18^th) needs a mention. The third year player has the form line at the PGA Championship, winning in 2011 and third in 2012. He may do nothing for the rest of the year but he is a lock for this one.

Australians: Currently 3 in the top 50; Scott 7^th, Day 35^th and Senden 45^th. Realistically though, our hopes lie with Scotty. Two seconds, a seventh and an eighth at the majors in the last two years, Scott is well and truly due. No longer having to look after Ana Ivanovic, Scott has turned the expectations of his early years into a top ranking for the last two years, finishing fifth in both 2011 and 2012. He gifted Els the Open Championship last year but he will redeem himself to the harsh Australian fans within the next two years.

Part 2 of these predictions was meant to be like the last, with two sports featured. However my love of golf has clearly got the better of me, so apologies to the football fans out there. A special football (soccer) will be follow in Part 2b shortly.

For all you golfers and golf fans I wish you a good year on the fairways, and I encourage any of you that have the chance to visit Barnbougle Dunes & Lost Farm in Tasmania. Ranked in the top 40 and 90 respectively in the world, these public courses are the best I’ve ever played and are an amazing and affordable golf trip right on our doorstep.

Fearless Predictions: Part 1

Earlier this year I reflected on 2012 and the events that shaped it. Two months down in 2013 and plenty has happened to suggest this year will be as exciting as the last. With the Australian Open, the ACC Report, the Super Bowl and Black Caviar’s return already in the book it’s time to look into the 2013 crystal ball.

Starting today with Australian cricket and Formula 1, the next few weeks will see a breakdown of topics such as Tiger & Rory, A-League/Champions League, everything USA and all the relevant and irrelevant sporting events that need to be covered.

It will culminate with a look into the AFL and NRL seasons by going deep into the fixtures and looking at the strength of schedule (SOS) for each team. Hopefully this helps with planning for finals tickets 6 months in advance.

It won’t all be serious, and more than likely I will look like a fool as each prediction fails, but it wouldn’t be much fun if I didn’t do it. So let’s get this started!

Australian Cricket: Moses, Usman and Xavier. Yes three Australian Cricketers!

What better place to start than with the team that will play 14 tests this year while using 42 players? Australia’s rotation policy will just as likely see Darren Lehman pad up as it is to see Australia’s best XI take on the Indian’s and Pom’s. If that wasn’t enough it seems that Australian team doctors have lost Errol Alcott’s magic spray from ten years ago as breakdowns and stress fractures continue to spread like peptides and HGH.

Before dissecting the men’s year ahead a quick congratulations to our women’s team, the Southern Stars, for taking out the World Cup in India last week. For all the publicity the men’s team gets, it should not be forgotten that our women have won 6 of the 10 World Cups played.

Now for the tour of India. Let's look at the facts first:

• Since resuming test cricket in India in 1996 after a ten year hiatus, Australia has won 4 of the 17 matches played, winning only one series in 2004. That team included Langer, Hayden, Martyn, Clarke, Warne, Gillespie, McGrath and led by Adam Gilchrist
• England became the first team since that '04 Australian side to win a series in India.
• Both of the above teams were ranked number 1 in the world at the time.
• South Africa are the only other team to have won a series in India, winning in 2000.

In summary, only three teams have ever won a series in India and two of those were the number one in the world!!

Back row: Haydos, Pigeon, Dizzy, Alfie, Kasper, Kat, Clarkey

Front Row: Marto, Gilly, Bing, Punter, Boof

Australia has named an inexperienced squad for this series with one eye squarely on the Ashes and has done so by naming a first test team where 7 batsmen (including Henriques) have played a total of 16 matches in India between them. Clarke (10 matches at 38) and Watson (6 matches at 40) are the only two to have padded up in India.  On the bright side they have more experience than the bowlers with Siddle leading the attack with his 1 previous test where he took 4 wickets at 44.

Australia’s lack of experience in India and also against spin is highlighted by S Rajesh of Cricinfo and shows not only our struggles against Indian spinners, but our spinners' struggling to bowl in India. Even the greatest of them all, Shane Warne, averaged 25.41 for his career and 43.11 in India. Let’s hope Australia’s new team song leader Nathan Lyon can return to the form we saw in Sri Lanka.

With that said I see this being a close series. Indian curators will produce dust bowls to favour a possible three prong spin attack. This may aid Australia’s new bowlers in their quest to achieve the lost art of reverse swing right before the Ashes, as well as lead to possible variable bounce. We are also facing an Indian team in a time of transition. This time around there is no Laxman, Dravid or Ganguly.

Prediction: In Sachin Tendulkar’s last series as a Test cricketer, I see Australia winning one test while giving away another they could have easily won (South Africa memories anyone), and losing a third.I would normally suggest a draw as the other result, as around 25% of matches between the two teams in India normally are. However with these batting lineups, I don’t see either team batting out 5 days (or 4 with rain). This gives India a comfortable 3-1 series win. Even with that result I think Australia take confidence from the tour ahead of the tour of England, even if the media doesn’t see it that way.

As for the Ashes....... best saved for another blog, post India tour!

Formula 1: Not bad for a second driver?

Last year we saw the first 7 races of the season go to 7 different drivers, two of them first time winners. I don’t think we can expect the same this year but we can expect another close championship with all teams trying to compete before the big engine change in 2014. The lack of summer changes should help the second tier teams such as Lotus, Mercedes and Sauber to close the gap on the top 3, especially after Raikkonen’s third place last year. It will be interesting to see how McLaren perform with a clear top driver in Button, with Sergio Perez likely to be become the new Mark Webber in his supporting role to Button. We see the schedule drop to 19 races after a number of drivers were critical of the longest season in the history of the sport last year, aided by Eccelestone’s failure to negotiate a second US Grand Prix.

In 2012 Sebastian Vettel became just the third driver to win three consecutive titles. The other two you ask? Schumacher and Fangio, both who went on to win a fourth title the next year. Vettel’s strength in recent years is to use his qualifying ability to position himself at the front and lead the race. But over the last few years we have seen a couple of examples (Canada 2011) where he has cracked under pressure or the car has failed him. Surprisingly Vettel led the field in overtakes last year with 74 (40 of those came in two races at the end of the season to seal the title) as many simply think that he always starts on the front row. The other remarkable thing about Vettel is that since joining Red Bull Racing four years ago he has won 25 out of a possible 75 races, giving him a 33% strike rate. That form alone would see him win 6 races this year, more that he won last year on the way to the title.

I could talk about the others; Button, Raikkonen, Hamilton, our Mark Webber even, but I’d rather get straight to the point. 

Prediction: Fernando Alonso will win the driver’s championship and stop Vettel’s reign.

Alonso and Ferrari’s ability to finish races, both through his driving skills and the team’s reliability, will determine if my prediction this comes true. Last year Alonso had two retirements, both due to ‘racing incidents’. He also only had two races (retirements not included) where he finished worse than he started, and one of these was starting on pole to finish second. This was a trend that continued on from 2011 where he retired just once and only finished worse than his starting position three times for a combined loss of 4 places. In the final 11 races that he finished last year he was off the podium once with a fifth. He also led the field in podiums by appearing 13 times in 20 races compared to Vettel’s 10.

Two predictions down and plenty more to go. Tune in Monday for a special on the world game!

 

A New Sporting Reality

'The ACC has identified significant integrity concerns within professional sports in

Australia related to the use of prohibited substances by athletes' 1

‘The darkest day in Australian sports’ one paper read and if you watched the news last night you would have thought that every Australian professional sports person was using Performance and Image Enhancing Drugs (PIEDs). This isn’t what this story is about and it’s not a new narrative. It’s a story that has evolved from the East Germans and Russians of the 80’s through to baseball’s steroids obsession in the 90’s, cycling’s EPO shame during the noughties before settling on the theme of this decade; PIEDs.

Were any of us really surprised at the Australian Crime Commission’s (ACC) findings? Surely we can’t be that naïve in Australia to think that our sporting stars are so much different to the rest of the world. In an industry that is built on you or your team having the edge on your rivals, would you not go to any lengths to ensure you have that edge? If the gap between semi pro and pro athletes is so small, then why not take the chance to push yourself up to that level? In a world where there are only a finite number of positions in elite teams, and where the monetary rewards are enormous, can we blame these athletes and coaches for the decisions they make?

I can’t say that I wouldn’t do this if I was in their position. Without being there you can’t comment on it. I know that growing up playing tennis, golf, cricket or soccer I looked for any advantage I could find over my opponents. Whether it be training more, buying a better racket or trying to psych them out, I would try anything (if you don’t know me I am a little competitive). If I made it to the top would I continue to look for these advantages? Sure I would! But I would hope that my morals and upbringing would assist me to know what is right and what is wrong.

'it is not only athletes who are involved in doping,

but athletic support staff, organised criminal groups and complicit doctors.'1

In Australia we are somewhat sheltered to sporting news that doesn’t involve Australians. Sure we all saw and heard about Lance Armstrong, heck I even wrote above him last week, but there are many, many other stories that the general sporting public in Australia has disregarded or ignored for so long.

Only 4 days ago Europol, the European Union’s law enforcement agency, released a damning report on corruption in football on all levels including players, officials and team staff, and their link to criminal networks.

Then in the US, right before the biggest sporting event of the year, the Super Bowl, discussions on PIEDs surrounding Ray Lewis flared up and reports that using certain substances was common practice in some teams, including of all things Deer Antler Spray. It even prompted one of America’s most respected sports writers, Bill Simmons to dedicate his weekly column to the topic just two days out from the Super Bowl. I encourage all to read it.

So with the world game dealing with widespread corruption and the most profitable sport in the US under a drug and safety cloud, would it not be time for us to re-evaluate the drug regulations pertaining to/our opinions regarding drug use in our own sporting codes?

'The PIEDs market in Australia is large and diverse, with a wide range of substances being

used by a broad cross-section of the community.'1

I am the first to admit that I had my head in the sand surrounding drugs for a long time as shown by my thoughts on Lance. Once you have experienced that letdown the seed of doubt is placed in your mind forever. You become a cynic. You lose the ‘innocent before proven guilty’ belief. It makes you question everything you watch, which for sports fans takes away from the very reason we enjoy sport. We enjoy watching because of the thrill we get at witnessing competition and seeing a victor.

What this does is make us question Adrian Peterson’s return from an ACL reconstruction in under 12 months to produce one of the single greatest NFL seasons by a running back. It puts that thought into your mind about what may have been the real driving force that lead to Andy Murray becoming one of the big 4. Do we question how our State of Origin stars can play a game on Wednesday night and be fighting fit to play two days after? Does it change our thinking on Manny Pacquiao suddenly losing to the same guy he had beaten three times before?  

There is no proof to any of the above, but it doesn’t mean that in this day and age with anonymous Twitter feeds, Facebook comments and 24 hour news that people won’t speculate.

'The difference is that the Australian threat is current, crosses sporting codes and is evolving.'1

The problem with all of this lies in an example closer to home and an example using one of the most high profile sportsmen in the world.

Example 1: Nick Malceski ‘blew out’ his ACL at the start of the 2008 AFL season, only to return half way through the season after having a synthetic ligament put in its place.

Example 2: Kobe Bryant of the Los Angeles Lakers used the off season to make special trips to Germany to have platelet-rich plasma therapy, which, as the name suggests involves having platelet rich plasma injected into the body to stimulate healing of bones and tissue.

Both of the above examples involve medical procedures, using artificially created substances to help a player recover and perform at a higher level sooner. The difference society sees in these examples is that we are simply using these artificial means to allow a player return to their previous level. How far removed is this from the substances used in the ACC report? The players aren’t injecting human growth hormones (HGH), they are taking substances that allow the body to produce more HGH naturally. It is only through the decisions of society and drug enforcement agencies that some substances are perceived to legal, while others are banned. In addition, it is the responsibility of an athlete or club to seek any legal advantage it can get over opponents. In most cases this is technological or nutritional. What if you were to use a drug that is currently legal, or untested, before it has been moved to the banned substance list by WADA, USADA or any other drug agency, to improve your performance? Aren’t you doing what is in the best interest of you, the team & the club?

You can see where the lines become grey and the waters murky. At what point are our athletes meant to stop and think about this? At what point does a club step in even if it is to the detriment of their team’s performance? This brings about the last big point surrounding drugs in sports; one that has pleasantly avoided Australian sports until now. Is it not in the best interest of the league to avoid drug controversies at all costs?

With any business reputational damage is costly as it generally leads to monetary loss. The AFL has often been criticised, maybe fairly so now, for its stance on recreational drugs. But the lack of testing and accountability in our major codes means that the cases of reported offences are as low as they have ever been. Low numbers of drug cases are good for the game, good for advertising revenue and good for the codes portraying their sport to the millions of parents out there choosing which sport Sam or Lucy are going to play. These aren’t just sports, they are businesses, and they are run to make money and to promote their sport above all else.

In the end this is all about accountability. It is about the moral ground we stand on regarding drugs. It is about society’s willingness to attack this head on. More than that though it is about how we view sport, and about how sport is about the game, the competition and the thrill of the ride and not about the records, the money and the bottom line.

1. Organised Crime and Drugs in sport. Australian Crime Commission. February 2013 http://www.crimecommission.gov.au/sites/default/files/files/organised-crime-and-drugs-in-sports-feb2013.pdf